LEXINGTON— kentucky basketball earning your ninth national championship It would be a dream come true for the team's fervent fans. It would also be the worst nightmare for two of the largest betting houses in the United States.
The Wildcats are the biggest liability for BetMGM and DraftKings. On BetMGM, the UK leads the country in buy-in percentage (the percentage of total bets) at 11.6 and is second in handle percentage (the percentage of total money) at 13.0, behind only of the defending national champion. University of Connecticut (14.6%), both figures as of Monday. Kentucky leads the nation in both categories on DraftKings, with 18% of the tickets and 24% of the handle as of earlier this week.
Not surprisingly, those numbers are even more pronounced in the Bluegrass State. More than 70% of bets placed on Kentucky at BetMGM are on the Wildcats, representing 75% of the total money wagered. Those percentages are even higher on DraftKings: 75% of bets on Kentucky are on coach John Calipari's team to win the 2024 championship. NCAA Tournament title, which is 81% of the identifier.
Despite the abundance of bets placed in the UK, there is still value to be found, said Steve Bittenbender.
“For a futures market, where they are winning the national title, I would recommend it to anyone,” said Bittenbender, a writer and analyst for BetKentucky.com. “However, I would recommend doing it within reason. Kentucky's odds are quite lucrative, depending on which sportsbook you go to.
“And the best thing about future odds is that you get the odds as they are set at that moment. So if you come in and take the bet at 30-1, you're stuck at those 30-1 odds for the rest of the season. … If Kentucky comes out ahead this year, it will create a nice, sizable prize for (bettors) if they end up cutting down the nets in April.”
Because of the high roster turnover the Wildcats typically experience each year, Bittenbender admits they are “hard to judge” as bettors.
“But at the same time, you have to look at who Kentucky brings in. They always bring in a top (recruiting) class,” he said. “You're not looking at the players who are at the bottom of the top 50 or anything like that. You're looking at the elite of the elite. That helps in some ways.”
While the Wildcats' national championship odds vary (from 22 to 1 in BetMGM and DraftKings at 35-1 in FanDuel — Bittenbender has a theory: He believes his odds, year after year, “are probably a little bit shorter” than a team with a similar profile.
“Just because of the support they have, anyone who's a Kentucky fan is probably going to bet on Kentucky to win the national title, especially here in Kentucky,” he said. “I think there are very few who don't think Kentucky is a national contender every year… That could affect (a sportsbook saying), 'Okay, instead of going 20-1, we're going to beat them.' . to a 15-1 shot just to lessen our responsibility a little.'”
Delving into betting on specific UK games, Bittenbender highlighted arguably the team's defining trait: its high-flying offense. The Wildcats average nearly 90 points per game, which ranks third in Division I. That's why Bittenbender said “the over is always in play” when Kentucky takes the court.
But he warned UK fans “who live and die with every loss” to take a deep breath.
Let cooler heads prevail before placing a bet.
“If you go to (X, the platform formerly known as) Twitter to post 'Fire Calipari' or something like that, I wouldn't necessarily recommend that you bet on Kentucky,” he said. “But if you're able to handle losing and you understand that's how a season goes, then I wouldn't have a problem saying, 'Okay, go ahead and bet on your team to win.'”
Contact Kentucky football and men's basketball reporter Ryan Black at [email protected] and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.
